Executive summary
Ukraine's drone forces struck a Russian guided-missile frigate valued at $450–500 million for the fourth time, while US-Iran ceasefire negotiations advanced toward a framework deal involving the unfreezing of up to $100 billion in Iranian assets and Strait of Hormuz reopening, according to reporting cited across multiple sources. Australia's 2026 National Defence Strategy, as described by ASPI Executive Director Justin Bassi, named China as the country's core strategic threat for the first time while committing to raise defence spending to 3 percent of GDP by 2033.
Key takeaways
- Ukraine's drone forces struck the Admiral Essen — a $450–500 million guided-missile frigate — for the fourth time since 2022 in a single night that also targeted two oil terminals with a combined storage capacity of up to 1.2 million tons of fuel, demonstrating a systematic campaign of high-value attrition against Russian Black Sea and energy infrastructure that Russia has been unable to defend despite the frigate's onboard countermeasures.
- US-Iran ceasefire negotiations have advanced toward a framework involving the unfreezing of up to $100 billion in Iranian assets and Strait of Hormuz reopening, but the deal faces resistance from Israel and Republican lawmakers, remains structurally incomplete on nuclear and Revolutionary Guard governance questions, and is complicated by JP Morgan's warning that international reserves face near-operational collapse beginning in September absent energy supply restoration.
- Australia's 2026 National Defence Strategy has publicly named China as the country's core strategic threat for the first time while targeting a defence spending increase from approximately 2.7–2.8 percent to 3 percent of GDP by 2033 — a target whose adequacy ASPI's Justin Bassi openly questioned given concurrent threats in Europe, the Middle East, the South China Sea, and in the cyber domain, all of which post-date the original 2013 spending baseline.
Ukraine: Drone Campaign Strikes Russian Frigate for Fourth Time, Targets Naval Base and Energy Infrastructure
On the night of May 23, Ukrainian drone units conducted strikes on Novorossiysk Naval Base in Russia's Krasnodar region, targeting two Russian naval vessels, according to Major Robert 'Magyar' Brovdi, identified by The Military Show as one of the best-known commanders of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces. Brovdi published details and video footage of the operation online. The primary target was the Admiral Essen, an Admiral Grigorovich-class guided-missile frigate designated a Project 11356R vessel, valued at an estimated **$450 to $500 million** per The Military Show's cited reporting. The vessel displaces **4,000 tons** at full load, measures just over **409 feet** in length, carries up to **200 crew members**, and is capable of speeds up to **30 knots**. Its armament includes **8 vertical launch system cells** for Kalibr, Oniks, or Tsirkon cruise missiles, an additional **24 VLS cells** for surface-to-air missiles, a 100mm naval gun, two AK-630 rotary cannons, torpedo launchers, and an anti-submarine rocket launcher, per the same source. According to Brovdi's account, at least one drone struck the side of the Admiral Essen, with at least **three additional UAVs** colliding with the frigate. The frigate attempted to engage the drones with its onboard defenses but failed to bring them down, per The Military Show's cited reporting. A secondary target — an unnamed Project 1239 Bora-class hoverborne guided-missile corvette, one of only **two such vessels ever built**, displacing just over **1,000 tons** and measuring **215 feet** in length with a peak speed of **55 knots** — also absorbed multiple drone impacts, per the same source. The May 23 attack was the **fourth recorded strike** on the Admiral Essen, per The Military Show. The first occurred in 2022 via a Neptune cruise missile strike. A second strike on **March 2, 2026** targeted the ship's superstructure, resulting in a fire that burned for approximately **18 hours** and damaging the ship's grenade launchers, TK-25 electronic warfare complex, and multiple radar systems. A third strike on **April 6, 2026** produced satellite imagery showing fresh hits to the frigate's bow section near its A-190 naval gun, with open-source intelligence analysts assessing the strike may have degraded the ship's mobility, per the same cited reporting. Three Ukrainian units participated in the May 23 operation: the **9th 'Kairos' Battalion**, the **412th 'NEMESIS' Brigade**, and the **414th Unmanned Strike Aviation Brigade**, per Brovdi. Brovdi also reported that May 23 drone operations struck an Osa surface-to-air missile system in the Donetsk region valued at approximately **$10 million**; a rear base and logistics hub of Russia's 6th Air and Air Defense Forces Army in Rovenky, Luhansk region; a drone command post in the Kherson region; fuel tankers and armored vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia region; and two oil terminals in Novorossiysk — the Sheskharis terminal and the Grushova terminal, described by The Military Show as the **largest petroleum storage facility in the Caucasus region** with a stated capacity of up to **1.2 million tons** of fuel. This pattern of repeated strikes on the same high-value vessel suggests a deliberate Ukrainian campaign to incrementally degrade a $500 million asset through attrition rather than a single decisive blow — a strategy enabled by the relatively low unit cost of drone munitions compared to the frigate's replacement value. No Russian government confirmation, denial, or casualty figures appeared in the cited transcripts.
Ukraine Battlefield: Kyiv Strike Threat, Mass Drone Intercepts, and Partisan Operations Inside Russia
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov conveyed to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Russian forces are beginning systematic strikes against decision-making centers in Kyiv and Ukrainian military compounds, and Russian military sources threatened to completely obliterate the Ukrainian capital, according to Professor Scott Lucas of University College Dublin's Clinton Institute, speaking in a transcript cited by warandpolitics24. A weekend attack involving approximately **90 missiles and 600 drones** struck targets across Ukraine, with the majority directed at Kyiv; **4 people were killed and more than 100 were injured**, with most casualties in the capital, per the same source. The Jason Jay Smart transcript separately reported that on May 24, Russia launched **90 missiles and 600 drones** at Ukraine. Ukrainian forces are reported to have intercepted **55 missiles and 549 drones**, which the transcript characterized as a **91 percent drone intercept rate**, though no named Ukrainian or international body was cited as the source for these figures. Russia warned embassies to evacuate personnel from Kyiv. A series of G7 country embassies and the EU's ambassador declined to leave, with the EU ambassador stating publicly that the mission would remain alongside Ukraine, according to Professor Lucas. A disputed incident preceded the escalation: Ukrainian drone strikes hit a building in Russian-occupied Donetsk. Russian sources described it as a college dormitory with **21 people aged approximately 18 to 23 killed**; Ukraine said it was targeting a drone command headquarters called Rubicon, per Lucas. The two accounts are unreconciled. The Financial Times — credited specifically to reporter Christopher Miller — and Bloomberg separately reported, per Lucas, that President Putin seeks to end the war on Russian terms including capture of the entirety of the Donbas by year's end. Lucas assessed that Putin has reportedly given up on Trump assisting him in that goal, though he attributed that view to his own analysis. The Institute for the Study of War, cited by the Jason Jay Smart transcript, assessed that Ukraine has seized the initiative on the battlefield. Russia gained only **35 kilometers — approximately 14 miles** — along the approximately **1,200-kilometer** active front line by May 24, which the transcript calculated as roughly **29 meters of depth on average**. The settlement of Mala Tokmachka has resisted Russian capture for over **1,500 days**, with a March estimate cited in the same transcript putting Russian casualties at **254 per square kilometer**, calculated as more than **8,900 casualties** for the village, per the same source. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed on May 21 that the SBU Special Operations Center 'A' conducted a drone strike on a Russian FSB headquarters near Henichesk in the partially occupied Kherson region, according to The Military Show. The facility comprised **nine buildings** repurposed from a hotel or resort complex on the Arabat Spit. Zelenskyy stated: 'The headquarters of the Russian FSB officers were hit and an anti-aircraft complex Pantsir-S1 was destroyed in our temporarily occupied territory. Thanks to this operation alone, the Russians suffered losses of about **a hundred occupiers killed and wounded**.' The destroyed Pantsir-S1 system is valued at up to **$20 million** per unit, per The Military Show. NASA's FIRMS satellite monitoring service detected elevated thermal signatures at the site on May 17, the reported date of the strike, per the same cited reporting. In a separate May 19 operation, Robert Brovdi stated that drone pilots struck a training and production facility of the **78th Sever-Akhmat Motorised Special Purpose Regiment** in Snizhne, occupied Donetsk, using **11 attack drones each armed with 100-kilogram warheads** in an operation named 'Snow for Akhmat.' The targeted compound measured approximately **2,484 square meters**. Brovdi stated an estimated **65 Russian special forces cadets were killed**, along with the head of the center, per The Military Show. These figures were not independently confirmed. Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces stated that between May 1 and May 21, they eliminated **20 Russian air defense systems**, per The Military Show. Russian military blogger Maxim Kalashnikov wrote: 'The land route to Crimea increasingly resembles the roads in Afghanistan in the 1980s. The remains of destroyed vehicles are scattered along the sides of the road.' A blogger identified as Romanov stated that 'the number and frequency of such attacks will soon increase,' and noted the absence of sky-monitoring posts along the route, per The Military Show's citation of Russian nationalist military bloggers. Regarding internal Russian pressure, the Jason Jay Smart transcript reported that Igor Volo, identified as a former vice president of Gazprombank, has defected to Ukraine and is associated with an organization called Black Spark, described as a resistance movement conducting sabotage operations within Russia focused on the oil and gas sector. Russia is losing approximately **$159 million daily** in oil and gas revenue on a year-over-year basis, though no named external source was cited for this figure. Russian internet shutdowns are costing companies between **$12.5 million and $25 million per day**, approximately **$750 million per month**, per the same transcript, again without a named external source. President Putin signed a law offering debt cancellation of between **$100,000 and $140,000** to military personnel signing contracts of at least one year, described as equivalent to **nine to thirteen years** of a Russian teacher's salary, per the same source. The United Nations conservatively estimates civilian deaths from Russia's full-scale invasion at more than **15,000**, a figure that does not include undocumented deaths such as those during the 2022 siege of Mariupol, per Professor Lucas.
US-Iran: Ceasefire Framework Negotiations Advance Amid Continued Airstrikes and Strait Closure
The United States and Iran are engaged in negotiations over a potential agreement to extend an existing ceasefire, according to reporting cited by Visual Politik EN. White House leaks described proposed terms including a **60-day ceasefire extension**, the unfreezing of Iranian funds potentially reaching up to **$100 billion**, and authorization for Iran to sell its oil on international markets. In exchange, Iran would partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin negotiations on its nuclear program, per the same reporting. President Trump posted to Truth Social, following phone calls with the leaders of **Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain**, that 'an agreement has largely been negotiated subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and various other countries,' per a transcript cited by the Rubin Report. Trump separately stated that enriched uranium and nuclear material would 'either be immediately turned over to the United States to be brought home and destroyed or preferably in conjunction and coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, destroyed in a place or at another acceptable location' with Atomic Energy Commission oversight. Trump also stated he had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and that 'final aspects and details of the deal are currently being discussed and will be announced shortly.' Secretary of State Rubio described remaining obstacles as 'wording issues' and said a deal could be finalized within a few days, per Professor Lucas of University College Dublin's Clinton Institute, speaking via warandpolitics24. However, US airstrikes against Iran were conducted overnight, and Iran stated it has the right to retaliate, per the same source. Professor Lucas described the emerging framework as involving Iranian control arrangements over the Strait of Hormuz, a lifting of American sanctions, reparations for war damages, and a long-term ceasefire of **at minimum 60 days**, after which Iran said it would discuss its nuclear program. Iran is seeking the unfreezing of approximately **$24 billion** of its assets held abroad, with immediate discussions focused on either a loan or unfreezing of **$12 billion**, per Lucas, who cited discussions involving Qatar. He noted that approximately **$100 billion** in Iranian assets are held by other countries. Iran's position, per Visual Politik EN, is that the time has not come to negotiate away its nuclear program, and that while the strait may be opened to navigation, it would remain under the control of an authority established by the Revolutionary Guard. Iran's foreign minister stated that toll collection is not currently planned, though Visual Politik EN noted this statement carries limited weight absent endorsement from the Revolutionary Guard. Israel communicated that the agreement in its current form is unacceptable, per Visual Politik EN. Republican lawmakers also raised public objections. Trump's team called it 'absurd' to suggest the president would agree to a deal leaving Iran in a stronger nuclear position, per the same source. Trump also posted that expansion of the Abraham Accords was 'a mandatory requirement' for any deal, naming **8 countries** under discussion, per the Rubin Report. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, creating strain across supply chains involving oil, gas, fuels, helium, sulfuric acid, and nitrogen fertilizers, per Visual Politik EN. JP Morgan, cited in the same transcript, warned that absent restoration of energy supply, international reserves would face severe strain beginning in **June** and near operational collapse beginning in **September**. Trump stated in late April that Iran had only days before its oil system would collapse, a forecast that analysts assessed as premature, per Visual Politik EN. The military campaign, described by Visual Politik EN as Operation Epic Fury, destroyed thousands of targets and killed at least **53 high-ranking Iranian officials**, virtually all replaced by figures described as more radical. A US-based human rights organization focused on Iran, cited in the Visual Politik EN transcript, reported that more than **600 people** have been executed in Iran since the beginning of the year. A Tomahawk missile strike was reported to have hit a school, resulting in the deaths of more than **150 girls**, per the same source. The Revolutionary Guard has since consolidated control over the military chain of command, military industry, strategic decision-making, and security forces, per Visual Politik EN. For comparative context, in 2015 following an agreement with the Obama administration that eased sanctions, Iran's GDP increased by **7.5 percent**, per the same transcript — a data point Iranian officials are reportedly factoring into current negotiations. The US Senate passed a war powers resolution requiring congressional consultation before continuation of the conflict, though the lower chamber had not yet approved it as of the time of the interview, per Lucas. Secretary of State Rubio stated that Ukraine-Russia talks are not progressing and that the United States will not continue to broker those negotiations, per the same source — a linkage that illustrates how Washington's bandwidth for simultaneous conflict mediation is being tested.
Space as a War-Fighting Domain: CSIS Analysts Assess Adversary Capabilities and US Vulnerabilities
A public panel discussion hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, designated the HTK series, addressed the militarization of space with participants Heather Williams, Director of the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues; Carrie Binghan, Director of the CSIS Aerospace Security Project; and Tom Carrico, Director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project. US Space Command Commander General Stephen Whiting was quoted as stating that the US Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps have over **35 years** become optimized around access to space capabilities 'and do not have the force structure to fight the way we used to fight without space,' per the CSIS transcript. Former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Chris Grady was cited by Binghan as having described space as 'the critical domain because it enables all terrestrial advantage.' Two named operations — **Operation Absolute Resolve**, described as the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and **Operation Epic Fury**, described as the operation to degrade Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities — were cited as instances in which space was fully integrated, per the same source. Binghan stated that China and Russia have developed capabilities targeting US space assets with 'no orbit out of reach from LEO to GEO.' China operates more than **500 ISR satellites**, per Binghan's characterization. She described a Chinese intelligence company as supplying satellite imagery and targeting information to Iran. Russia's first strike in Ukraine was characterized not as a ground incursion but as a **cyber attack against commercial communications satellite Viasat**, aimed at disrupting Ukrainian battlefield communications, per Binghan. Starlink subsequently served as a communications lifeline for Ukraine, per the same source. General Whiting, per the CSIS transcript, presented an animation of a Russian satellite that entered a coplanar orbit with a US government satellite, shadowed it, released a projectile that began to move, and which Whiting characterized as 'a demonstration of a weapon.' Binghan stated the assessment that Russia is developing a nuclear weapon for orbital deployment that could 'indiscriminately wipe out low Earth orbit,' affecting satellites belonging to multiple nations including Russia and China. The last Russian direct-ascent anti-satellite missile test occurred in **fall 2021**; the last Chinese physical demonstration was in **2007**, per Binghan. The United States has implemented a unilateral moratorium on testing destructive anti-satellite missiles, per the same source. Binghan stated that China demonstrated what was believed to be the first-ever **satellite refueling mission at geosynchronous orbit** last summer, involving two satellites that came together, and characterized US investment in comparable maneuver and mobility capabilities as lagging. China has multiple Starlink-equivalent satellite constellations in development involving thousands of satellites, per Binghan. Carrico argued for space-based interceptors as part of the **Golden Dome initiative** and discussed space-based sensors as a critical requirement for tracking hypersonic glide vehicles, which he described as too low for effective ground-based radar tracking and unpredictable in trajectory. The **Space Development Agency's proliferated warfighter space architecture** was cited as addressing this sensor requirement, per the CSIS transcript. Williams noted the **1967 Outer Space Treaty** as being 'on its last limbs' and cited concerns about Russian orbital nuclear weapon development. She referenced the **1979 Moon Treaty** as prohibiting militarization of the Moon, noting the United States did not ratify it. Binghan called for establishing communications channels with China regarding potential satellite collisions in low Earth orbit, citing a current practice of sending emails that may go unanswered. The cross-domain dependency identified by these analysts — in which terrestrial military advantage now flows directly from space-based enablers — means degradation of US space assets would not merely reduce intelligence gathering but would impair the fundamental command, control, and logistics architecture that US forces have built over more than three decades.
Global Trade Architecture: Rules-Based System Under Pressure as China's Supply-Chain Leverage Grows
The collapse of practical WTO enforcement, the weaponization of supply chains, and the limits of industrial policy subsidies were examined by Chad Bown, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former chief economist at the State Department during the Biden administration, and Soumaya Keynes, economic columnist at the Financial Times and former **8-year** contributor to The Economist, appearing on the CSIS Trade Guys podcast to discuss their co-authored **221-page** book 'How to Win a Trade War,' scheduled for publication shortly after Memorial Day, per the CSIS transcript. Bown stated that the rules-based system he was trained to rely on 'no longer exists' as a practical guide for policymakers, per the CSIS transcript. Podcast host Bill Reinsch described the WTO as having 'run out of steam about 2008 or so.' Keynes pushed back on characterizations of the system as entirely defunct, noting that many governments still observe WTO rules, but acknowledged that some of the world's largest trading actors are acting unilaterally. Bown identified China's **'Made in China 2025'** program and its **'dual circulation'** strategy as reflecting a deliberate decision to make the rest of the world dependent on Chinese supply chains while reducing China's own dependencies. He cited recent Chinese actions involving **rare earths, permanent magnets, and Nexperia chips** as examples of willingness to weaponize supply-chain leverage, per the CSIS transcript. Keynes noted that Europe is confronting a flood of Chinese imports redirected by US tariffs, with European producers finding it harder to compete both domestically and in third markets. Bown said Europe is attempting to address the China challenge through the **EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation** and discussions around sourcing diversification rules that would limit reliance on any single country to between **30 and 40 percent** of supply, noting it is unclear whether these measures would survive WTO litigation. Keynes described this area as 'totally in flux,' per the CSIS transcript. On the US Chips Act, Bown argued it focused heavily on manufacturing capacity without generating sufficient demand-side signals, citing **Intel's difficulty finding customers** as an illustration. Keynes said adding multiple competing policy objectives to a subsidy program risks undermining the primary goal — a risk she characterized as 'don't put fish in a fruit salad' — and argued limited US institutional experience with subsidy deployment requires 'a huge amount of humility,' per the same source. Bown stated that President Trump has articulated **at least half a dozen** stated rationales for current tariff policy simultaneously, which he argued undermines tariff effectiveness for any single purpose, per the CSIS transcript. Reinsch cited Pew Research Center polling in which trade consistently ranks at or near the **bottom** of issues Americans identify as priorities, while the economy and healthcare rank near the top. Keynes cited academic research finding that the first Trump administration's tariffs produced **no measurable effect on manufacturing employment** in areas previously affected by import competition from China, but did find an association between those tariffs and **increased political support** for the president, per the same source. On export controls, Bown cited the **Toshiba case from the 1980s** as demonstrating that export control regimes require close coordination among partners because profit incentives make unilateral enforcement insufficient. Reinsch said the primary domestic effect of the resulting US sanctions legislation was the closure of a single US business — the **Toshiba Machine Corporation's US operations** — per his personal recollection. A previously planned CSIS episode on USMCA was rescheduled because talks were set to occur on **May 28 and 29**, with a guest episode moved to the week of **June 1**, per the CSIS transcript.
Australia: 2026 Defence Strategy Names China as Core Threat, Targets 3% GDP Spending by 2033
Australia's 2026 National Defence Strategy, presented by Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Miles at the National Press Club, was assessed by Justin Bassi, Executive Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, in a CSIS-hosted discussion with Michael Green of the US Studies Centre. Bassi identified three principal takeaways from the strategy, per the CSIS transcript. First, the strategy frames Australia's posture around **self-reliance** — explicitly distinguished by Miles from self-sufficiency, independence, or isolationism — defined as the combination of strengthening domestic capabilities with ongoing alliance commitments and trusted partnerships. Second, the strategy names **China as Australia's core strategic threat**, which Bassi characterized as a departure from previous strategies' framing. He noted the strategy acknowledges that China is simultaneously Australia's **largest trading partner and its core strategic adversary**, per the same source. Third, the strategy advocates strongly for the **Australia-US alliance**, which Bassi linked to a context in which Australian public opinion has expressed concern about the unpredictability of the current US administration, though support for the alliance itself has remained comparatively steady, per Bassi. On defence spending, Bassi stated that under the newly adopted **NATO measurement methodology**, Australia's defence spending is currently assessed at approximately **2.7 to 2.8 percent of GDP**, with a government-stated target of **3 percent by 2033**, per the CSIS transcript. Under the previous Australian measurement model, spending has remained at **just over 2 percent of GDP**, a level first targeted by Prime Minister Gillard in a **2013** defence white paper and committed to again in a **2016** defence white paper under Defence Minister Marise Payne. Bassi observed that the 2013 target was set before Russia's annexation of Crimea, before the rise of Islamic State, and before cyber threats were a significant policy consideration. Bassi assessed AUKUS as benefiting from bipartisan political support across changes of government in all **three partner nations** — Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom — per the CSIS transcript. He addressed criticism from former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who has argued that concerns about the current US administration mean Australia should reconsider the planned transfer of **Virginia-class submarines** under the AUKUS pathway. Bassi stated his own assessment that AUKUS strengthens rather than reduces Australian sovereignty by providing access to advanced capabilities. Bassi described ASPI as the first Australian think tank established outside the university sector, set up by the Howard government in the **late 1990s** with bipartisan support. A government-commissioned **Varghese Review**, initiated in the **second half of 2022**, examined **six security-focused think tanks** that receive significant government funding, per Bassi's account. Bassi expressed concern that an emerging competitive grant process could disincentivize analysts from publishing work critical of the government of the day. Green assessed the Varghese Review as having reached broadly appropriate conclusions, per the CSIS transcript. Bassi also described an open-source research effort by former ASPI analyst Albert Zhang, who identified an information operations campaign attributed to Beijing that sought to amplify concerns about Japan's nuclear wastewater release in order to strain Japan's relationships with regional partners, including South Korea, at a time when the United States was working to strengthen trilateral cooperation — a finding that government agencies could not replicate publicly due to diplomatic constraints, per Bassi. Australia's policy shift on China, including early decision-making on **5G network security**, began under Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull around **2016**, driven in significant part by intelligence community assessments, per Bassi.
Sources
- The Military Show (Ukraine drone strikes, Admiral Essen, FSB headquarters, drone training center)
- Jason Jay Smart (Russian internal affairs, battlefield assessment, ISW citation)
- warandpolitics24 / Professor Scott Lucas, University College Dublin Clinton Institute (Ukraine-Russia diplomatic track, US-Iran framework)
- Visual Politik EN (US-Iran negotiations, Operation Epic Fury, Strait of Hormuz, JP Morgan warning)
- Rubin Report (Trump Truth Social posts, Iran deal, Abraham Accords, DNI resignation)
- Center for Strategic and International Studies / CSIS Trade Guys (Chad Bown, Soumaya Keynes — trade war analysis)
- Center for Strategic and International Studies / CSIS HTK Series (Heather Williams, Carrie Binghan, Tom Carrico — space warfighting panel)
- Center for Strategic and International Studies / Grand Strategy Down Under (Justin Bassi, ASPI; Michael Green, US Studies Centre — Australia defence strategy)